There are many ways to analyze basketball totals. One method I look at is trying to anticipate what the pace of the game might be. The Houston Rockets, for instance, like to play the games at a slow pace. That’s because head coach Jeff Van Gundy loves to emphasize defense every game. When he was coach of the Knicks they were one of the top defensive teams in the NBA, one that didn’t mind winning a game 84-81.
Now that he is coach of the Rockets, that strategy came with him. The Rockets are second in the NBA in points allowed and first in field goal shooting defense. When they play a team like San Antonio, you can anticipate a slow-paced game with rugged defense and no easy shots.
But an angle within this angle that is even more important is how the team is doing LATELY. That’s more important than season averages. Memphis, for instance, became a wide-open, running offense in midseason when a new coach took over. The Clippers are suddenly struggling to score points and that’s tied into the fact that starting point guard Shaun Livingston is out for the year (knee injury) and Sam Cassell isn’t playing much with some nagging injuries.
Let’s examine a game I gave out this week when Philadelphia played at Atlanta. If you look at the overall stats of the season, you see a pair of lousy offensive teams. The 76ers average 95 ppg, sixth-worst in the NBA, while the Hawks are dead last at 93 ppg. Based on that, you might expect a low scoring game and a low total by oddsmakers.
However, take a look at how those teams have played lately: Atlanta is on an 8-3 run over the total, while Philadelphia has scored 99 or more in 4 of the last 5 games. Their offenses are gaining more cohesion and confidence. Atlanta has scored 100, 106, 99 and 104 points the last four games. The 76ers struggled offensively after trading star Allen Iverson, which was to be expected. But that was several months ago, meaning that the other players on the team have had to learn to pick up the slack, distribute the ball, and look for the new go-to guy(s).
So what happened? The total was set low by oddsmakers at 185. Yet, Atlanta shot over 49% and finished with 104 points. The teams combined for 196 points, more than 10 points higher than the total for an easy over. Myself and my clients cashed easily.
Just as revealing in the box score was the balanced scoring. You never thought about balanced scoring when Iverson was on the 76ers, yet they had 5 guys in double digits that game.
Other factors with respect to totals are: Are any teams playing with no rest? Is this a team’s third game in four nights? Players that are not rested means the first thing to go are their legs. Tired teams are less likely to have the energy to play good defense. Also, examine balanced scoring and potential mismatches, like a good backcourt going against a team that has poor defensive guards.
You can see you I cashed my 10-star Game of the Day on the 76ers/Hawks over the total. And you can too, by understanding totals and by looking at how teams are playing the last few weeks, more so than the entire season.
The most recognizable name in the history of basketball is Michael Jordan. There is not a corner of the world where the mention of “Michael” raises eyebrows. As much as Air Jordan has given to the game, is it possible that he is also responsible for killing the game?
Michael Jordan was cut from his team as a young player. From that day on he committed himself to be the best he could possibly be. The incomparable drive in Jordan is legendary. His ability to score, dunk, play defense, and win are unmatched. Of all of the traits he possesses, his competitive spirit may be his best attribute. Nothing gets in the way between Jordan and success.
When Michael Jordan hit his peak in the late 1980’s, it was obvious to the world that he would lead his Chicago Bulls to Celtic-like success. The result was an incredible 6 NBA titles under Coach Phil Jackson. Jordan, Scottie Pippen, Bill Cartwright, John Paxson, and Dennis Rodman represented an unbeatable combination of skill, tenacity, and competitiveness. Jordan, the prince of late game heroics, was the magnet that made everything flow in the same direction.
Air Jordan Nike-brand shoes have been sold by the millions. The shoe reflects his game. Smooth, sleek, powerful, and explosive. Some will remember that Michael became a good shooter only after years of developing his stroke due to his drive for perfection. In the end it was his ability to put the ball on the floor that made him unstoppable. His drives were strong, quick, and acrobatic. His ability to get to the basket forced the Detroit Pistons to establish an elaborate set of “Jordan Rules” in an attempt to slow him down. Nothing slowed Michael Jordan down.
The Michael Jordan phenomenon created basketball phrases new to the game. Players everywhere worked on their ability to “put it on the floor” or “get to the rim”. How many times have you heard “And 1″ as a shot is taken off the dribble drive? Scoring off the dribble slowly became the preferred mode of scoring points in the NBA. As with many popular trends, “the bounce” became the skill that dominated individual practice activity. Players from the NBA down to grade school worked to perfect their ball skills and driving ability.
With the advent of Michael’s slashing to the rim, players all over the world perfected this skill through practice. Was all of this activity good for the game? Not only did it focus on dribbling and driving, it was a blow to the jump shot. Since the glory days of Michael Jordan the art of shooting has steadily declined. Shooting percentages have been on the decline for years now. Pitiful free throw percentages are seen in the NBA, College, and high school levels. Kids are growing up without the ability to consistently shoot the ball. Certainly it is not fair to blame Jordan for this, but with fame comes responsibility. His fame was so enormous that if he had started to make half court hook shots, kids in every gym in America would have worked tirelessly to do the same.
The problem with the dribble drive is that every second spent on it takes seconds away from shooting jump shots. If repetition produces mastery, lack of repetition equals mediocrity. Shooters are not born they are made. They are made from hours of sweat, hard work, and thousands of shots. Gyms no longer are filled with jump shooting gym rats. Where did all the gym rats go?
Walk into most gyms these days and you will see kids lined up at the three point line. They hang around this line not to shoot, but to drive to the rim to attempt the dunk. Most kids have no chance to dunk, let alone touch the rim. Yet visions of SportsCenter dunks are still fresh in their mind. They spend hours trying to dunk it just one time. What a waste of time most coaches would tell you. Why? Games are not won on the drive and dunk. They are won with toughness, fundamentals, and shooting. Yes, I said shooting.
Our kids must fall in love once again with the jump shot. No matter how great the slam dunk is, it will never put three points on the scoreboard like the popular three point shot. Both the drive and the jump shot have their place in the great game of basketball. They can survive together in balance. Lets open the door and invite the passion for shooting back in the gym.
Randy Brown has dedicated his life to the game of basketball. His 18 years in college basketball highlights a successful 23-year career. Coaching positions at Arizona, Iowa State, Marquette, Drake, and Miami of Ohio fill his resume. Mentored by Basketball Hall of Fame coach Lute Olson at Arizona, he learned the game from the best. At 39, Randy became the head coach at Division I Stetson University in Deland, Florida. His efforts have helped develop 12 NBA players including Steve Kerr, Sean Elliott, and Jaamal Tinsley. His passion for mentoring young coaches and developing youth programs is known and respected throughout the country. Over the years he has authored over 50 articles on coaching basketball and has taught over 24,000 young players in summer camps and clinics. He works as a basketball consultant and mentor for coaches. He is also an author and public speaker. For free articles and questions, Randy can be reached at coachrandybrown@yahoo.com.
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